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Digg it UP - Russia, Speculators to Dictate Uranium Price Swings in 2007
Sport is often used as a metaphor in business, comparing the effort of the team with that of the organization. The goal of such a comparison is to improve your business (process) from what you observe and learn from sports, in this case soccer.There are two relevant questions. First, “what team will perform best?” And, “will the best team win?” But to focus on the comparison, you should focus on the second question only, because the first is basically about quality which is difficult to measure. So; what will make a team win the games? There are several factors – all present in either area:Factor one – Luck. Ordinary luck, we are not able to influence everything, you need some kind of luck to win ... Like "the hand of God" (Maradona)? Factor two – Environmental influences (Back luck): A “wrong” decision of a referee falls in this category. Also, your starting position in the group may be more of a challenge than for other teams. This seems even more true in business where circumstances are never really equal. Factor three – Individual talent and specialists. The football player is a world (global) profession. Players all over the world are exchanged and transferred, which makes that technical differences between countries are assimilated. Technical talent becomes less of a differentiator. Same as in business, professionals are available especially in highly specialist environments (law, medicine, engineering, etc). It is less true in t
This event reminded Europe of last year’s Ukraine-Russia gas dispute and subsequent soaring energy prices. While not endorsing nuclear power, as this would anger her Social Democrat coalition partners, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in a television interview, “…one must consider well what consequences there would be if we shut down nuclear power plants.” Germany plans to shut down four nuclear reactors by 2009 and may close an additional thirteen by 2020.
As we have seen since 2005, the political climate toward a continued nuclear renaissance has grown more favorable. But with all politics, one must expect downsides, too. One such downside for the uranium price cheerleaders could be Russia.
If one looks for the “trigger on
Research has shown that good-looking people have a distinctly unfair advantage in contemporary society over their not-so-attractive counterparts. This unfair advantage is what is known as the Halo Effect!What Is The Halo Effect?The halo effect describes our natural tendency to be much more trusting, tolerant and compliant towards good-looking individuals in contrast to the not-so-attractive...or in other words to be inordinately biased in a positive manner to people who are good-looking.This has far reaching consequences, especially in the work place, as illustrated by the commonplace manner in which employers routinely employ more attractive applicants before the less-attractive, sometimes even when the less-attractive applicant is better qualified!In fact the ramifications of the halo effect are now understood to be a lot more extensive than previously thought.For example we now know that people reflexively and subconsciously ascribe positive traits such as honesty, kindness, intelligence and talent to good-looking individuals whether or not such traits actually exist!1st Impressions Really Do Count!You've probably come across or heard the saying "Don't Judge A Book By Its Cover".Well the simple fact of the matter is that people do just that! They routinely judge "the book" by its cover. You see the fact of the matter is, we are pre-programmed from birth to make subconscious snap judgments based sol
The green light for accelerated demand of nuclear energy could come about because of a potential loss of up to 20 percent global gross domestic product annually. This estimate was courtesy of Sir Nicholas Stern, a senior UK economist, who calculated the impact of climate change. And 2007 might pass 1998 by as the world’s warmest year on record. Eight of the twelve warmest years on record have occurred since 1990.
This must be welcome news to uranium speculators, especially those holding the physical metal. Speculators outsmarted U.S. utility fuel managers and industry consultants by hoarding yellowcake in anticipation of the supply deficits now growing. That’s why they are the smart money. But will the nearly 200 consecutive weeks of a rising uranium price sustain through 2007?
By all accounts, uranium miners and future developers should be ecstatic over the $72/pound announcement of the spot uranium price. The latest long-term uranium contract brought $69/pound. Many of the new uranium projects, which we have been tracking since mid 2004, are likely to be economic at or below $60/pound. The broad purpose of a rising uranium price was to dust off the old uranium projects and reopen previously explored, nearly developed uranium mines. This is in the process of bearing fruit.
So why do we see continued hoopla for a higher uranium price? It’s because the speculators need the excitement and panic buying by utilities to unload their uranium stockpile.
Speculators holding physical uranium hope to make a king’s ransom should the uranium price zip through the inflation-adjusted record of approximately $111/pound and race even higher. Uranium oxide, or U3O8, very well could race to $100/pound and beyond. The momentum and panic leading to a much higher uranium price is evident in our research and discussions with industry insiders, but the pendulum might also swing backward later in 2007.
According to Treva Klingbiel, editor of TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review, which first publishes the weekly spot uranium price on Fridays, “Speculators are holding about 24 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent.” This amounts to about eight times the current U.S. uranium production, more than double the Kazakh 2006 production – some 22 percent of global uranium production in 2005. The speculator’s hoard easily outnumbers the U.S. Department of Energy’s announcement of 5+ million pounds of annual sales.
Smart money got the uranium the utilities previously thought they could get on the cheap, by accumulating it fair and square in the marketplace. And by squeezing on an already tight pipeline, the speculators drove the price to a record high this past December. While the kings that the speculators are holding for ransom are the utilities, at some point we anticipate a backlash.
The Downside of A Rising Uranium Price
There should be fireworks through 2007 as the uranium price approaches and probably crosses the $100/pound threshold, perhaps as early as late spring. While there will be bumps before and after the century mark, anxieties over energy disputes could help sustain a production-friendly uranium price well beyond 2007.
One powerful example of an energy dispute is the ongoing struggle between Russia and its former Soviet states. The Gazprom-Belarus gas dispute, settled on this past New Year’s Day, suddenly evolved into Russia’s Monday cutoff of the Druzhba oil pipeline across Belarus to Germany. Although it is likely to be settled without much fanfare, European leaders again question Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier, especially of oil and gas.
This event reminded Europe of last year’s Ukraine-Russia gas dispute and subsequent soaring energy prices. While not endorsing nuclear power, as this would anger her Social Democrat coalition partners, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in a television interview, “…one must consider well what consequences there would be if we shut down nuclear power plants.” Germany plans to shut down four nuclear reactors by 2009 and may close an additional thirteen by 2020.
As we have seen since 2005, the political climate toward a continued nuclear renaissance has grown more favorable. But with all politics, one must expect downsides, too. One such downside for the uranium price cheerleaders could be Russia.
If one looks for the “trigger on t
The number one sign that you may be experiencing click fraud is that your pay-per-click campaign costs are continuing to rise while your online sales are not meeting expectations. Sometimes if a keyword is too broad you may also experience this. If your cost per click is really sky rocketing then you are most likely experiencing click fraud. Click fraud usually happens to people who are in a number one position or who are competing for a highly contested keyword.The number two sign of possible click fraud is that your conversion rate for paid searches are lower than the conversion rate of your free listings. Somebody probably wants you out of the way as far as competition goes. If your keywords are the same for free listings and paid listings your conversion rate should be almost the same.The third sign of click fraud is that the cost-per-click for each of your best performing search terms have been steadily increasing. If you are paying more and the performance of the best search terms are plumeting then this is most likely click fraud.The fourth sign is that you suspect your competitors are deliberately driving up your costs by generating fraudulant clicks. The internet is a competitive market and I don't think people should be accused of click fraud without reason. Unfortunately there are dishonest people out there.The last reason is that you do not have a tool in place that is specifically designed to catch click fraud. Tools may help, but knowl
By all accounts, uranium miners and future developers should be ecstatic over the $72/pound announcement of the spot uranium price. The latest long-term uranium contract brought $69/pound. Many of the new uranium projects, which we have been tracking since mid 2004, are likely to be economic at or below $60/pound. The broad purpose of a rising uranium price was to dust off the old uranium projects and reopen previously explored, nearly developed uranium mines. This is in the process of bearing fruit.
So why do we see continued hoopla for a higher uranium price? It’s because the speculators need the excitement and panic buying by utilities to unload their uranium stockpile.
Speculators holding physical uranium hope to make a king’s ransom should the uranium price zip through the inflation-adjusted record of approximately $111/pound and race even higher. Uranium oxide, or U3O8, very well could race to $100/pound and beyond. The momentum and panic leading to a much higher uranium price is evident in our research and discussions with industry insiders, but the pendulum might also swing backward later in 2007.
According to Treva Klingbiel, editor of TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review, which first publishes the weekly spot uranium price on Fridays, “Speculators are holding about 24 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent.” This amounts to about eight times the current U.S. uranium production, more than double the Kazakh 2006 production – some 22 percent of global uranium production in 2005. The speculator’s hoard easily outnumbers the U.S. Department of Energy’s announcement of 5+ million pounds of annual sales.
Smart money got the uranium the utilities previously thought they could get on the cheap, by accumulating it fair and square in the marketplace. And by squeezing on an already tight pipeline, the speculators drove the price to a record high this past December. While the kings that the speculators are holding for ransom are the utilities, at some point we anticipate a backlash.
The Downside of A Rising Uranium Price
There should be fireworks through 2007 as the uranium price approaches and probably crosses the $100/pound threshold, perhaps as early as late spring. While there will be bumps before and after the century mark, anxieties over energy disputes could help sustain a production-friendly uranium price well beyond 2007.
One powerful example of an energy dispute is the ongoing struggle between Russia and its former Soviet states. The Gazprom-Belarus gas dispute, settled on this past New Year’s Day, suddenly evolved into Russia’s Monday cutoff of the Druzhba oil pipeline across Belarus to Germany. Although it is likely to be settled without much fanfare, European leaders again question Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier, especially of oil and gas.
This event reminded Europe of last year’s Ukraine-Russia gas dispute and subsequent soaring energy prices. While not endorsing nuclear power, as this would anger her Social Democrat coalition partners, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in a television interview, “…one must consider well what consequences there would be if we shut down nuclear power plants.” Germany plans to shut down four nuclear reactors by 2009 and may close an additional thirteen by 2020.
As we have seen since 2005, the political climate toward a continued nuclear renaissance has grown more favorable. But with all politics, one must expect downsides, too. One such downside for the uranium price cheerleaders could be Russia.
If one looks for the “trigger on
One way of marketing your website and product can be achieved for absolutely nothing. Article writing is one of the easiest ways to promote your website in order to generate traffic and increase earnings.How does this happen?Create articles relative to your website content and submit them to "free content" article submission sites. Simple to do, takes very little time and can very quickly increase your website visitors, sales and in turn, your revenue.How can article writing increase traffic and revenue?The article on the free content submission site contains a link connecting back to the website. Readers, after studying your articles, may opt to click on this link and pay you an unplanned visit. Having articles on the free content submission sites is also allowing these articles to be obtainable to many other webmasters who may choose to publicize that particular article on their website.If they do, your article will still contain a link back to your website and anyone who reads the article can choose to click on the link back in order to look in on your website. As the amount of your published articles multiply in numbers, and even more and more of them are appearing on numerous websites, the increasing number of links to your website increases as well.Main search engines are paying a lot of respect to incoming links to websites so they can judge the worth of a particular website. The more incoming links the website has, the extra va
Speculators holding physical uranium hope to make a king’s ransom should the uranium price zip through the inflation-adjusted record of approximately $111/pound and race even higher. Uranium oxide, or U3O8, very well could race to $100/pound and beyond. The momentum and panic leading to a much higher uranium price is evident in our research and discussions with industry insiders, but the pendulum might also swing backward later in 2007.
According to Treva Klingbiel, editor of TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review, which first publishes the weekly spot uranium price on Fridays, “Speculators are holding about 24 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent.” This amounts to about eight times the current U.S. uranium production, more than double the Kazakh 2006 production – some 22 percent of global uranium production in 2005. The speculator’s hoard easily outnumbers the U.S. Department of Energy’s announcement of 5+ million pounds of annual sales.
Smart money got the uranium the utilities previously thought they could get on the cheap, by accumulating it fair and square in the marketplace. And by squeezing on an already tight pipeline, the speculators drove the price to a record high this past December. While the kings that the speculators are holding for ransom are the utilities, at some point we anticipate a backlash.
The Downside of A Rising Uranium Price
There should be fireworks through 2007 as the uranium price approaches and probably crosses the $100/pound threshold, perhaps as early as late spring. While there will be bumps before and after the century mark, anxieties over energy disputes could help sustain a production-friendly uranium price well beyond 2007.
One powerful example of an energy dispute is the ongoing struggle between Russia and its former Soviet states. The Gazprom-Belarus gas dispute, settled on this past New Year’s Day, suddenly evolved into Russia’s Monday cutoff of the Druzhba oil pipeline across Belarus to Germany. Although it is likely to be settled without much fanfare, European leaders again question Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier, especially of oil and gas.
This event reminded Europe of last year’s Ukraine-Russia gas dispute and subsequent soaring energy prices. While not endorsing nuclear power, as this would anger her Social Democrat coalition partners, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in a television interview, “…one must consider well what consequences there would be if we shut down nuclear power plants.” Germany plans to shut down four nuclear reactors by 2009 and may close an additional thirteen by 2020.
As we have seen since 2005, the political climate toward a continued nuclear renaissance has grown more favorable. But with all politics, one must expect downsides, too. One such downside for the uranium price cheerleaders could be Russia.
If one looks for the “trigger on
Nowadays, most of our time is spent in managing finances. In spite of all toilsome efforts, at times, mismanagement of finances leads to piling up of more than one debt. You have to do something about it, or else it would become a cause for bigger problems. What are the possible solutions available to you in this particular point? Well, there is an ultimate way for all your troubles. We are talking about debt consolidation. Does a mere mention of debt consolidation makes you think of higher interest rates? We have a solution for that, as well. Here are some tips to find debt consolidation that too at low interest rates. Check this one out and you will know how to search for low interest debt consolidation.The lenders ask for high interest rates for consolidation of debt due to the fact that they do not have any assurance regarding the repayment of the loan amount. This simply implies that if you manage to assure the lender regarding the repayment of the loan amount of debt consolidation, then you can surely find low interest rates. After you have found solution with in the problem itself, now, it is time for some action.You can qualify for low interest rates of debt consolidation by means of secured one. All you need to do put some assets as collateral and enjoy the amazing benefits. With the help of secured low interest debt consolidation, you will have all the following benefits.• You can merge your several debts in one.• Lower interest ratespounds of annual sales.
Smart money got the uranium the utilities previously thought they could get on the cheap, by accumulating it fair and square in the marketplace. And by squeezing on an already tight pipeline, the speculators drove the price to a record high this past December. While the kings that the speculators are holding for ransom are the utilities, at some point we anticipate a backlash.
The Downside of A Rising Uranium Price
There should be fireworks through 2007 as the uranium price approaches and probably crosses the $100/pound threshold, perhaps as early as late spring. While there will be bumps before and after the century mark, anxieties over energy disputes could help sustain a production-friendly uranium price well beyond 2007.
One powerful example of an energy dispute is the ongoing struggle between Russia and its former Soviet states. The Gazprom-Belarus gas dispute, settled on this past New Year’s Day, suddenly evolved into Russia’s Monday cutoff of the Druzhba oil pipeline across Belarus to Germany. Although it is likely to be settled without much fanfare, European leaders again question Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier, especially of oil and gas.
This event reminded Europe of last year’s Ukraine-Russia gas dispute and subsequent soaring energy prices. While not endorsing nuclear power, as this would anger her Social Democrat coalition partners, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in a television interview, “…one must consider well what consequences there would be if we shut down nuclear power plants.” Germany plans to shut down four nuclear reactors by 2009 and may close an additional thirteen by 2020.
As we have seen since 2005, the political climate toward a continued nuclear renaissance has grown more favorable. But with all politics, one must expect downsides, too. One such downside for the uranium price cheerleaders could be Russia.
If one looks for the “trigger on
Missed payments and default usually happen because someone has failed to take into consideration unexpected circumstances that can arise and prevent successfully paying one’s debts. It is essential for this people to get out of debt; otherwise further spending will severely compromise their credit capacity and even risk bankruptcy.Even though there are many ways to get out of debt, not all of them are available for everyone. Sometimes reducing expenditures while meeting costly loan payments is impossible, and since some expenditures are unavoidable they default. For those with bad credit, it’s hard to get a loan and Bad Credit Loans are an option that is not always a solution and sometimes adds up to the problem due to the high interest rates.Bad Credit LoansFailing to pay (even if you just miss out one or two payments) affects your credit score and is recorded in your credit history. Though you may obtain a loan with bad credit, you’ll either have to bear with higher interest rates or put your house as collateral thus risking losing it if you continue to miss payments.Though bad credit loans carry higher interest rates or the risk of repossession, they are sometimes the only option for those who cannot get regular loans. If you have too many stains on your credit history and you think you won’t be able to be approved for a regular loan, then you can seek a bad credit loan lender.There is another way of reducing the interest rate charged on t
This event reminded Europe of last year’s Ukraine-Russia gas dispute and subsequent soaring energy prices. While not endorsing nuclear power, as this would anger her Social Democrat coalition partners, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in a television interview, “…one must consider well what consequences there would be if we shut down nuclear power plants.” Germany plans to shut down four nuclear reactors by 2009 and may close an additional thirteen by 2020.
As we have seen since 2005, the political climate toward a continued nuclear renaissance has grown more favorable. But with all politics, one must expect downsides, too. One such downside for the uranium price cheerleaders could be Russia.
If one looks for the “trigger on the horizon,” as Merrill Lynch mentioned in a December research report, the hiccup in uranium’s price rise could become the U.S. Commerce Department settlement with Russia’s Tekhsnabexport. We discussed this in an article written before last July’s G-8 Summit in St. Petersburg, when we forecast uranium could run between $55 and $100 during 2006 (“Even Higher Uranium Prices This Summer”).
On December 27th, RIA Novosti and others reported upon statements made by the head of Russian-owned Tekhsnabexport that a ‘civilian nuclear power deal’ between Russia and the United States was imminent. Vladimir Smirnov, announced, “I think that in the first quarter of 2007, or by the summer of 2007 at the latest, we will sign an agreement with the U.S.”
At this time, Russia can only sell into the United States through publicly traded United States Enrichment Corporation unless it pays a 116-percent import duty. In mid July, the U.S. International Trade Commission voted to keep the import duty on Russian uranium products. The commission claimed that lifting the anti-dumping restrictions “would seriously harm the American economy.”
Those clamoring for Russian enriched uranium are the U.S. utilities. Last spring, 85 percent of the nuclear power plants formed AHUG (Ad Hoc Utility Group) to lobby the U.S. Commerce Department about loosening up those restrictions. Head of Russia’s Federal Agency for Nuclear Power Sergei Kiriyenko wants a maximum 25-percent share of the U.S. uranium market. He wants to directly deliver the enriched uranium to the U.S. utilities, bypassing USEC at market prices. In December, Kiriyenko said, “We would like to provide direct deliveries to the U.S. nuclear market now and after 2013 (when the HEU-LEU contract is terminated with USEC).”
Russia’s direct sales to U.S. utilities might minimize the current panic. Perhaps it would stimulate some anxiety on the weaker uranium price speculators? Smart money weighs the risks and rewards on an investment. After a steep price appreciation – nearly 100 percent during 2006 – and up by more than 1000 percent since Christmas 2000.
The loan rate for uranium has also jumped since the year 2000. According to TradeTech’s Loan Rate for uranium purchases, the carrying cost is the highest since September 1978. It is one-half-percent lower than the peak months of 1974.
Speculative upside expectations on price appreciation for yellowcake may be limited. For the past year, it was an easy ride. Dwindling inventories, inadequate new mining production and increased demand for new nuclear power plants made 2006 an easy year for speculators. Nonetheless, interest had begun waning during the fourth quarter, before Cameco’s Cigar Lake flooding.
DC-based energy consultant Julian Steyn, who helped co-author A Brighter Tomorrow with U.S. Senator Domenici (R-NM), had told us in May 2006 that interest about uranium mining companies had nearly vanished. In the early months of this past year, he remarked of the large number of phone calls he received from institutions and investors. Judging from the refusal of Florida Power and Light to participate in last summer’s U.S. Department of Energy auction (“because the price was too expensive at $50/pound”), many believed uranium’s price rise would eventually tank. We were told uranium would peak at about $55/pound, perhaps higher, in the fourth quarter of 2006.
Where is the upside and how does that compare to the downside?
The positive development is the changing political climate worldwide. For example, Australia’s Labor Party may allow expansion in this country. This will benefit a large number of Australian-based and Canadian-based exploration and development companies for a short period of time. As we have come to expect, Western Australia is very unlikely to change its uranium mining policy ban. The coal unions overpower the state’s politicians; the loss of jobs would probably preve
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