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Digg it UP - Peak Oil: Proof That It Is Imminent
A major achievement in gaining page rank on search engines involves link popularity. All the main search engines like Google, Yahoo and MSN consider this the single most important factor. The general belief and strategy they use is that when a website is important, then other websites will link to it as a major resource for their visitors.A relatively important website that has a high number of important incoming links should be ranked higher than its competing websites. Webmasters work to achieve high rank with link popularity. Many websites are devoid of quality content and they get very few links because of it.The rank of a particular website cannot be based solely on the number of incoming links. It would be easy to gain numerous back links to any website through link exchange. The quality of the sites that link back must be a consideration as well.In the best situation links can be gotten from ranked websites with good traffic, especially from pages with fewer external links. If a website’s incoming links are all pointing to the home page and use the same keywords and same descriptions, and its links come from reciprocal links pages, then search engines see the links were made only to achieve page rank.Here are the best ways to establish incoming links from higher ranked websites:1) Speak out in forums and write in your link with your signature.2) Exchange links with websites who write on the same content that you write. Be careful about which page they add your website link. Your link should not be included with more than 20 to 30 other links. And make sure it is not just added to a link page. The page's title and other links that appear there should relate to your website's content. Having a reciprocal link from a “Links” page counts for very little.3) Write quality content about your field as well as your products and services.4) Market articles that bear good content. Ask other webmasters to post your articles too.5) Add your website to the most popular web directories that will accept it, especially if they are directories that specialize in your content areas.6) Do not concentrate on a single method, you need to use all of them for maximal effect. Any website that has only reciprocal links doesn’t appear normal to Google. A combination of reciprocal and one way links is the best way to be seen as normal.
After 2010 ---- World Energy Council
2016 ---------- EIA (US Government Energy Information Administration)
After 2020 ---- CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)
In Saudi Arabia, which claims to hold a quarter of all global reserves (conventional oil), six giant fields produce 90 percent of their oil. All of these giants are old and likely past their peak production. In 1982, OPEC countries stopped releasing production and reserve numbers on a field by field basis. In effect, they became secretive and have remained secretive. For this reason, we can only estimate (guess) when each field will reach peak. What we do know is that they have had ongoing technical problems with each of their maturing giants. They have depended on water injection for decades and are now experiencing recurring high water cuts. In essence, they are pumping too much water out of the ground instead of oil.
From what I read in “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, the Saudis are struggling just to maintain production, let alone have the ability to increase it. According to Simmon’s analysis, he thinks it is likely that one of their giants is on the precipice of decline. If they lose one giant, they will likely go into production decline as a country. Whereas, U.S. Government planners are expecting Saudi Arabia to increase their production to meet worldwide demand, even the Saudis have claimed that the best they can do by 2009, is 12.5 million barrels per day.
Production Decreases:
Currently 116 large fields produce nearly 50 percent of production. Most of these fields are old and in depletion. The fields below show the common theme of production declines at the world’s giant fields. (numbers are production in barrels per day)
Oseberg (Norway) -------- 1994 (800 thousand) ---------- 2002 (200 thousand)
Brent (North Sea) -------- 1984 (450 thousand) ----------
So you want to invest in the stock market, but don’t know where to begin. Have you thought about starting out at the bottom? In the stock market the bottom is the Pink Sheets. The Pink Sheets aren’t a stock exchange, but rather a listing service that allows market-makers to place bid and offers. Why would you want to buy and sell stocks on the Pink Sheets? Why would you want to start out at the bottom? Well, by starting out at the bottom you can work your way to the top.Here are nine things you need to know about Pink Sheets stocks:1) It doesn’t cost a huge amount of money to invest in Pink Sheets stocks. Instead of paying $25 a share, most are priced at under a dollar2) The volatility of the Pink Sheets allows you the opportunity to double your money.3) You can buy Pink Sheets stocks online without the need of a costly Stock Broker4) When you sell online, you call the shots, no more begging your Stock Broker to buy and sell. You buy when you want to buy and you sell when you want to sell. Best of all, you can automate the system so you don’t have to sit at your computer waiting for something to happen.5) You can access information about a particular stock online at the Pink Sheets website which provides you with all the information you will need about what is happening with the Pink Sheets stocks. Try finding a summary of the New York Stock Exchange and you have to go to at lest ten different sources.6) The Pink Sheets website will allow you track a stock’s progress with charts. You can find contact information about a Pink Sheets company from the Pink Sheets website.7) Companies that list on the Pink Sheets are start-up companies; this allows you to get in on the ground floor of emerging technologies.8) I’m not saying that there aren’t risks, but when you decide to go after your dreams and case the money you want, there are always risks. With the Pink Sheets you will always know what your maximum exposure will be. If you invested $500 in a stock that fell apart, they you know that you blew $500, with a business you never know what problems are waiting to get you should you fail.9) You buy into someone else’s effort. You don’t have to put in effort other then researching, buying, and selling. You don’t have to be up till ten at night filling order like some of the people running the businesses in whose stock you have been buying and selling.Now that you know about those nine things, consider checking out Pink Sheets stocks at www.pinksheets.com
In the United States, peak oil occurred in 1970. That year, we produced 10 million barrels per day. The apex only lasted a few months and then production began to decline. Today we produce less than 5 million barrels per day and the decline continues unabated.
I knew that oil was a limited finite resource and that sometime in the future oil production would not meet world demand. I knew that day was approaching, but I always assumed it would not occur until at least 2015 and possibly 2025, and that by that time we would have a substitute. I was too optimistic.
I’ve read five books on the subject and countless internet articles. Trust me, I did my homework. My research led to three conclusions:
1. Within 3-5 years we will reach global peak production.
2. Within 3 years high oil prices will have begun creating economic havoc.
3. High oil prices will eventually collapse the economy.
The focus of my research tried to answer one question: When will we reach global peak production? The answer is soon (by my estimate within 3 years). Yes, new production is coming online, but there are a limited number of projects that will begin production in the next three years. These projects must offset annual production decreases at existing fields of at least 2%, and a projected annual demand increase of 2%.
To meet the expected 2% annual demand increase for the next three years (2006-2008), production must reach 90 million barrels per day. This will require an increase of 11 million barrels per day of new production (5.5 million barrels a day to meet new demand and 5.5 million barrels per day offset declining production at existing fields).
Can global oil production increase 11 million barrels per day over the next three years? Unlikely. What is much more likely is that peak oil production will never reach 90 million barrels per day, but something closer to 87. If you want an estimated time for peak production, my bet is 2007. This will also likely be the year when oil reaches $100 a barrel. We are literally on the precipice of $100 a barrel oil.
Let’s look at the data:
Global demand was 77 million barrels per day in 2002. At the end of 2005, demand had risen to 83.5 million barrels per day. Thus, daily demand has increased on an annual basis of more than 1.5 million barrels per day since 2002. Furthermore, we can expect demand to increase 2% annually for the next three years. The result will be demand reaching 90 million barrels a day by the end of 2008.
Here are the calculations:
2006: 83.50 + 2% = 83.50 + 1.67 = 85.71
2007: 85.71 + 2% = 85.71 + 1.71 = 87.42
2008: 87.42 + 2% = 87.42 + 1.75 = 89.71
The problem we face is that to meet demand for the next three years we will have to annually produce an additional 3.4 million barrels per day to meet demand (1.7 million barrels per day for increased demand and 1.7 million barrels per day to offset production declines at existing fields. There are enough projects to meet demand in 2006, but 2007 becomes problematic, and 2008 becomes very unlikely.
Why is this happening? We stopped finding oil. Peak discovery was in 1965. Since then, discovery has steadily decreased. Buy 2010 discoveries will be paltry, likely only 3-4 billion barrels.
In 2004, 29.9 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only 7.6 billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Thus, we consumed 4 barrels for every barrel found.
In 2005, 30.4 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only five billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Thus, we consumed 6 barrels for every barrel found. Perhaps the most significant evidence of peak oil is the decline of oil discoveries since 2000. For, without discoveries there will be no new production.
Year ------- Major Discoveries ---- Barrels Discovered
2000 ------- 13 ------------------ 17.9 (billion)
2001 ------- 6 ------------------- 10.4
2002 ------- 2 ------------------- 10.9
2003 ------- 1 ------------------- 7.7
2004 ------- 0 ------------------- 7.6
2005 ------- 1 ------------------- 5.0
With so little oil being found, there is not going be enough new projects to meet future demand.
Approximately 95% of all oil has been found. Thus, only about 100 billion barrels of conventional oil are left to be discovered (3 years supply). Of this 100 billion, there is likely only one or two major fields that will produce more than 100 thousand barrels per day. World demand has become so huge that this is a drop in the bucket.
There are approximately 1.3 trillion barrels of oil reserves claimed by oil companies (this does not include the Tar Sands in Canada or the extra heavy oil in Venezuela, which are considered unconventional). This number is inflated because OPEC countries over-estimate their total in order to get larger production quotas. It is projected that it will take 35 years to consume all of the remaining reserves. However, most likely, we only have 20 years of plentiful supply (oil available for sale on the global market). Once we get towards the end, there is going to be very little exporting.
Plentiful supply does not mean that demand is being met. For, demand will exceed supply long before we run out of plentiful oil, thereby disrupting the supply chain and causing economic havoc. This will likely occur this decade, although reaching peak oil does not necessarily mean there will be shortages. As we reach peak oil, the price will soar thereby depressing demand. This will allow supply and demand to find an equilibrium thereby reducing or possibly preventing shortages. This kind of market mechanics is the reason many economists dismiss peak oil in the near term. They expect the high price of oil to reduce demand and allow other energy sources?that are currently not economical?to provide our energy needs.
Peak production is also evident by the fact that production is either declining or on the precipice of decline in every country except Canada, Venezuela, and the Middle East (where the majority of reserves remain). Soon the Middle East (Canada and Venezuela's increases are minimal on an annual basis) will have to increase production dramatically on an annual basis to meet world demand. At a certain point this will not be possible and global peak production will be reached.
U.S. Government economic planners currently project global peak production to be around 2015. This seems way too optimistic to me. The current excess worldwide production capacity is estimated to be only 1.5 million barrels per day. In fact, only one country, Saudi Arabia, claims any excess production capacity. With future demand requiring at least 3.4 millions barrels per day of new production each year, this leaves new projects to meet demand.
Most researchers agree that peak oil is imminent. Here is a list of forecasts:
2005 ---------- Ken Deffeyes (Oil Geologist/Author "Beyond Oil")
2006 ---------- T. Boone Pickens (Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- A. M. S. Bakhitari (Iranian Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- Matthew Simmons (Banker/Author "Twilight in the Desert")
2007 ---------- Colin Campbell ((Oil Geologist/Author "The Coming Oil Crisis")
2007 ---------- Anonymous Pemex Oil Geologist (Oilcast #28)
2008 ---------- C. Skrebowski (Petroleum Economist)
Before 2010 --- David Goodstein (Cal Tech Professor/Author "Out of Gas")
After 2010 ---- World Energy Council
2016 ---------- EIA (US Government Energy Information Administration)
After 2020 ---- CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)
In Saudi Arabia, which claims to hold a quarter of all global reserves (conventional oil), six giant fields produce 90 percent of their oil. All of these giants are old and likely past their peak production. In 1982, OPEC countries stopped releasing production and reserve numbers on a field by field basis. In effect, they became secretive and have remained secretive. For this reason, we can only estimate (guess) when each field will reach peak. What we do know is that they have had ongoing technical problems with each of their maturing giants. They have depended on water injection for decades and are now experiencing recurring high water cuts. In essence, they are pumping too much water out of the ground instead of oil.
From what I read in “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, the Saudis are struggling just to maintain production, let alone have the ability to increase it. According to Simmon’s analysis, he thinks it is likely that one of their giants is on the precipice of decline. If they lose one giant, they will likely go into production decline as a country. Whereas, U.S. Government planners are expecting Saudi Arabia to increase their production to meet worldwide demand, even the Saudis have claimed that the best they can do by 2009, is 12.5 million barrels per day.
Production Decreases:
Currently 116 large fields produce nearly 50 percent of production. Most of these fields are old and in depletion. The fields below show the common theme of production declines at the world’s giant fields. (numbers are production in barrels per day)
Oseberg (Norway) -------- 1994 (800 thousand) ---------- 2002 (200 thousand)
Brent (North Sea) -------- 1984 (450 thousand) ----------
AbstractA very slim minority of firms distribute dividends. This truism has revolutionary implications. In the absence of dividends, the foundation of most - if not all - of the financial theories we employ in order to determine the value of shares, is falsified. These theories rely on a few implicit and explicit assumptions:That the (fundamental) "value" of a share is closely correlated (or even equal to) its market (stock exchange or transaction) price;That price movements (and volatility) are mostly random, though correlated to the (fundamental) "value" of the share (will always converge to that "value" in the long term);That this fundamental "value" responds to and reflects new information efficiently (old information is fully incorporated in it).Investors are supposed to discount the stream of all future income from the share (using one of a myriad of possible rates - all hotly disputed). Only dividends constitute meaningful income and since few companies engage in the distribution of dividends, theoreticians were forced to deal with "expected" dividends rather than "paid out" ones. The best gauge of expected dividends is earnings. The higher the earnings - the more likely and the higher the dividends. Even retained earnings can be regarded as deferred dividends. Retained earnings are re-invested, the investments generate earnings and, again, the likelihood and expected size of the dividends increase. Thus, earnings - though not yet distributed - were misleadingly translated to a rate of return, a yield - using the earnings yield and other measures. It is as though these earnings WERE distributed and created a RETURN - in other words, an income - to the investor.The reason for the perpetuation of this misnomer is that, according to all current theories of finance, in the absence of dividends - shares are worthless. If an investor is never likely to receive income from his holdings - then his holdings are worthless. Capital gains - the other form of income from shareholding - is also driven by earnings but it does not feature in financial equations.Yet, these theories and equations stand in stark contrast to market realities.People do not buy shares because they expect to receive a stream of future income in the form of dividends. Everyone knows that dividends are fast becoming a thing of the past. Rather, investors buy shares because they hope to sell them to other investors later at a higher price. In other words, investors do expect to realize income from their shareholdings but in the form of capital gains. The price of a share reflects its discounted expected capital gains (the discount rate being its volatility) - NOT its discounted future stream of income. The volatility of
Can global oil production increase 11 million barrels per day over the next three years? Unlikely. What is much more likely is that peak oil production will never reach 90 million barrels per day, but something closer to 87. If you want an estimated time for peak production, my bet is 2007. This will also likely be the year when oil reaches $100 a barrel. We are literally on the precipice of $100 a barrel oil.
Let’s look at the data:
Global demand was 77 million barrels per day in 2002. At the end of 2005, demand had risen to 83.5 million barrels per day. Thus, daily demand has increased on an annual basis of more than 1.5 million barrels per day since 2002. Furthermore, we can expect demand to increase 2% annually for the next three years. The result will be demand reaching 90 million barrels a day by the end of 2008.
Here are the calculations:
2006: 83.50 + 2% = 83.50 + 1.67 = 85.71
2007: 85.71 + 2% = 85.71 + 1.71 = 87.42
2008: 87.42 + 2% = 87.42 + 1.75 = 89.71
The problem we face is that to meet demand for the next three years we will have to annually produce an additional 3.4 million barrels per day to meet demand (1.7 million barrels per day for increased demand and 1.7 million barrels per day to offset production declines at existing fields. There are enough projects to meet demand in 2006, but 2007 becomes problematic, and 2008 becomes very unlikely.
Why is this happening? We stopped finding oil. Peak discovery was in 1965. Since then, discovery has steadily decreased. Buy 2010 discoveries will be paltry, likely only 3-4 billion barrels.
In 2004, 29.9 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only 7.6 billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Thus, we consumed 4 barrels for every barrel found.
In 2005, 30.4 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only five billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Thus, we consumed 6 barrels for every barrel found. Perhaps the most significant evidence of peak oil is the decline of oil discoveries since 2000. For, without discoveries there will be no new production.
Year ------- Major Discoveries ---- Barrels Discovered
2000 ------- 13 ------------------ 17.9 (billion)
2001 ------- 6 ------------------- 10.4
2002 ------- 2 ------------------- 10.9
2003 ------- 1 ------------------- 7.7
2004 ------- 0 ------------------- 7.6
2005 ------- 1 ------------------- 5.0
With so little oil being found, there is not going be enough new projects to meet future demand.
Approximately 95% of all oil has been found. Thus, only about 100 billion barrels of conventional oil are left to be discovered (3 years supply). Of this 100 billion, there is likely only one or two major fields that will produce more than 100 thousand barrels per day. World demand has become so huge that this is a drop in the bucket.
There are approximately 1.3 trillion barrels of oil reserves claimed by oil companies (this does not include the Tar Sands in Canada or the extra heavy oil in Venezuela, which are considered unconventional). This number is inflated because OPEC countries over-estimate their total in order to get larger production quotas. It is projected that it will take 35 years to consume all of the remaining reserves. However, most likely, we only have 20 years of plentiful supply (oil available for sale on the global market). Once we get towards the end, there is going to be very little exporting.
Plentiful supply does not mean that demand is being met. For, demand will exceed supply long before we run out of plentiful oil, thereby disrupting the supply chain and causing economic havoc. This will likely occur this decade, although reaching peak oil does not necessarily mean there will be shortages. As we reach peak oil, the price will soar thereby depressing demand. This will allow supply and demand to find an equilibrium thereby reducing or possibly preventing shortages. This kind of market mechanics is the reason many economists dismiss peak oil in the near term. They expect the high price of oil to reduce demand and allow other energy sources?that are currently not economical?to provide our energy needs.
Peak production is also evident by the fact that production is either declining or on the precipice of decline in every country except Canada, Venezuela, and the Middle East (where the majority of reserves remain). Soon the Middle East (Canada and Venezuela's increases are minimal on an annual basis) will have to increase production dramatically on an annual basis to meet world demand. At a certain point this will not be possible and global peak production will be reached.
U.S. Government economic planners currently project global peak production to be around 2015. This seems way too optimistic to me. The current excess worldwide production capacity is estimated to be only 1.5 million barrels per day. In fact, only one country, Saudi Arabia, claims any excess production capacity. With future demand requiring at least 3.4 millions barrels per day of new production each year, this leaves new projects to meet demand.
Most researchers agree that peak oil is imminent. Here is a list of forecasts:
2005 ---------- Ken Deffeyes (Oil Geologist/Author "Beyond Oil")
2006 ---------- T. Boone Pickens (Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- A. M. S. Bakhitari (Iranian Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- Matthew Simmons (Banker/Author "Twilight in the Desert")
2007 ---------- Colin Campbell ((Oil Geologist/Author "The Coming Oil Crisis")
2007 ---------- Anonymous Pemex Oil Geologist (Oilcast #28)
2008 ---------- C. Skrebowski (Petroleum Economist)
Before 2010 --- David Goodstein (Cal Tech Professor/Author "Out of Gas")
After 2010 ---- World Energy Council
2016 ---------- EIA (US Government Energy Information Administration)
After 2020 ---- CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)
In Saudi Arabia, which claims to hold a quarter of all global reserves (conventional oil), six giant fields produce 90 percent of their oil. All of these giants are old and likely past their peak production. In 1982, OPEC countries stopped releasing production and reserve numbers on a field by field basis. In effect, they became secretive and have remained secretive. For this reason, we can only estimate (guess) when each field will reach peak. What we do know is that they have had ongoing technical problems with each of their maturing giants. They have depended on water injection for decades and are now experiencing recurring high water cuts. In essence, they are pumping too much water out of the ground instead of oil.
From what I read in “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, the Saudis are struggling just to maintain production, let alone have the ability to increase it. According to Simmon’s analysis, he thinks it is likely that one of their giants is on the precipice of decline. If they lose one giant, they will likely go into production decline as a country. Whereas, U.S. Government planners are expecting Saudi Arabia to increase their production to meet worldwide demand, even the Saudis have claimed that the best they can do by 2009, is 12.5 million barrels per day.
Production Decreases:
Currently 116 large fields produce nearly 50 percent of production. Most of these fields are old and in depletion. The fields below show the common theme of production declines at the world’s giant fields. (numbers are production in barrels per day)
Oseberg (Norway) -------- 1994 (800 thousand) ---------- 2002 (200 thousand)
Brent (North Sea) -------- 1984 (450 thousand) ----------
In this great country, the land of the free, where people died to give us the freedom not to have to pay a tea tax to England, there is a great injustice going on, that would make our fore fathers roll over in their graves! (Well, they'd be spinning if they knew everything!)I am writing today to protest a couple of things that I think should be illegal, that we in America, are allowing to remain legal. You may have already guessed one of the things: Non Sufficient Funds charges. I am referring specifically to the charges charged even though the bank has not paid anything. Well the other one is unique to only 2 or 3 banks, I believe, but it is worse! Namely: The deduction of debits at the end of the day, before the addition of credits!Don't get me wrong here, I think the bankers may be justified on their NSF charges, when they pay the charge. But to deduct $35-40 just to tell so-and-so that the money isn't there, should be illegal. I know that they need to send the person who overdrew their account a letter, but that can't possibly cost more than $5.00. (39 cents, I believe!). To charge $35-40 is extortion, and just for saying “no”?! Now , maybe if they pay the charge, the fee is called for. But I am disputing the legality, or the continuation of that legality, of banks charging fees for no service. Refusing to pay an overdraft is not a service.There are laws in place to set a cap on what credit cards can charge for interest. Why aren't there laws in place to reign in the banks, who charge exorbitant fees, on money they didn't even lend? And to make it illegal to count the debits before the credits? Now, I am not an attorney, but isn't there someone out there besides me, or with me, who can see that this shouldn't be legal?My family has been through some rough times recently. We have 9 children, and my husband's business equipment was stolen, which made it pretty much impossible to continue in that line of work. We suspect someone got high on meth for awhile. Through a misunderstanding on the cost of insurance, the equipment was not covered. So, we bit the bullet, and have been looking for something else. In the meantime, certain automatic charges were due to come out, and somehow, we would get the money “just in time” we thought, on the day the charge was to come out, only to learn, and/or be reminded that they deduct the debits first. Due to the laws put in place the last time a fuss was put up about the bank NSF charges a few years ago, they are not allowed to “discriminate”, and only one NSF charge can be refunded per year. The problem is, they shouldn't be taking out the charges in the first place, since it should be illegal to count the debits before the credits. But this is what my bank (Key bank)
Year ------- Major Discoveries ---- Barrels Discovered
2000 ------- 13 ------------------ 17.9 (billion)
2001 ------- 6 ------------------- 10.4
2002 ------- 2 ------------------- 10.9
2003 ------- 1 ------------------- 7.7
2004 ------- 0 ------------------- 7.6
2005 ------- 1 ------------------- 5.0
With so little oil being found, there is not going be enough new projects to meet future demand.
Approximately 95% of all oil has been found. Thus, only about 100 billion barrels of conventional oil are left to be discovered (3 years supply). Of this 100 billion, there is likely only one or two major fields that will produce more than 100 thousand barrels per day. World demand has become so huge that this is a drop in the bucket.
There are approximately 1.3 trillion barrels of oil reserves claimed by oil companies (this does not include the Tar Sands in Canada or the extra heavy oil in Venezuela, which are considered unconventional). This number is inflated because OPEC countries over-estimate their total in order to get larger production quotas. It is projected that it will take 35 years to consume all of the remaining reserves. However, most likely, we only have 20 years of plentiful supply (oil available for sale on the global market). Once we get towards the end, there is going to be very little exporting.
Plentiful supply does not mean that demand is being met. For, demand will exceed supply long before we run out of plentiful oil, thereby disrupting the supply chain and causing economic havoc. This will likely occur this decade, although reaching peak oil does not necessarily mean there will be shortages. As we reach peak oil, the price will soar thereby depressing demand. This will allow supply and demand to find an equilibrium thereby reducing or possibly preventing shortages. This kind of market mechanics is the reason many economists dismiss peak oil in the near term. They expect the high price of oil to reduce demand and allow other energy sources?that are currently not economical?to provide our energy needs.
Peak production is also evident by the fact that production is either declining or on the precipice of decline in every country except Canada, Venezuela, and the Middle East (where the majority of reserves remain). Soon the Middle East (Canada and Venezuela's increases are minimal on an annual basis) will have to increase production dramatically on an annual basis to meet world demand. At a certain point this will not be possible and global peak production will be reached.
U.S. Government economic planners currently project global peak production to be around 2015. This seems way too optimistic to me. The current excess worldwide production capacity is estimated to be only 1.5 million barrels per day. In fact, only one country, Saudi Arabia, claims any excess production capacity. With future demand requiring at least 3.4 millions barrels per day of new production each year, this leaves new projects to meet demand.
Most researchers agree that peak oil is imminent. Here is a list of forecasts:
2005 ---------- Ken Deffeyes (Oil Geologist/Author "Beyond Oil")
2006 ---------- T. Boone Pickens (Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- A. M. S. Bakhitari (Iranian Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- Matthew Simmons (Banker/Author "Twilight in the Desert")
2007 ---------- Colin Campbell ((Oil Geologist/Author "The Coming Oil Crisis")
2007 ---------- Anonymous Pemex Oil Geologist (Oilcast #28)
2008 ---------- C. Skrebowski (Petroleum Economist)
Before 2010 --- David Goodstein (Cal Tech Professor/Author "Out of Gas")
After 2010 ---- World Energy Council
2016 ---------- EIA (US Government Energy Information Administration)
After 2020 ---- CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)
In Saudi Arabia, which claims to hold a quarter of all global reserves (conventional oil), six giant fields produce 90 percent of their oil. All of these giants are old and likely past their peak production. In 1982, OPEC countries stopped releasing production and reserve numbers on a field by field basis. In effect, they became secretive and have remained secretive. For this reason, we can only estimate (guess) when each field will reach peak. What we do know is that they have had ongoing technical problems with each of their maturing giants. They have depended on water injection for decades and are now experiencing recurring high water cuts. In essence, they are pumping too much water out of the ground instead of oil.
From what I read in “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, the Saudis are struggling just to maintain production, let alone have the ability to increase it. According to Simmon’s analysis, he thinks it is likely that one of their giants is on the precipice of decline. If they lose one giant, they will likely go into production decline as a country. Whereas, U.S. Government planners are expecting Saudi Arabia to increase their production to meet worldwide demand, even the Saudis have claimed that the best they can do by 2009, is 12.5 million barrels per day.
Production Decreases:
Currently 116 large fields produce nearly 50 percent of production. Most of these fields are old and in depletion. The fields below show the common theme of production declines at the world’s giant fields. (numbers are production in barrels per day)
Oseberg (Norway) -------- 1994 (800 thousand) ---------- 2002 (200 thousand)
Brent (North Sea) -------- 1984 (450 thousand) ----------
Apology letters are best used to convey an apology you won’t or can’t make in person. Many situations requiring an apology escalate to conflict when parties meet face-to-face. In these cases, a letter disconnects the writer from the reader and suspends the confrontation. Likewise, if you’re responsible for the situation, apology letters allow you to convey your regret from a distance.Apology Letter ~ apologizing to boss for misconduct.Follow this outline…Format1. Use the Friendly format arrangement for Apology Letters: a. to the right side of the letter header place the return address b. make two carriage returns c. directly below the return address, place the date d. make three carriage returns e. do not include a reference line f. begin your letter g. indent the body paragraphs five spaces each h. center the closing and signature so that the left-most character of each are justified to the center of the page if the paper were folded.Wording1. Present your apology without conditions. Do not divide the responsibility, such as, “Please accept my apology, even though I know we both were somewhat responsible…” 2. If the blame clearly belongs to a third party and that is understood by the reader, apologize, but explain that the consequences were beyond your control. 3. If you are responsible for the situation, accept the blame. 4. The opening paragraph of our letter eloquently places the blame on the writer. The same paragraph goes on to describe the feelings the writer has toward his actions. 5. The next two paragraphs cleverly ask for forgiveness (and subtly suggest that the writer hopes to continue his job) before closing with a Thank You in the final paragraph.Tone1. Maintain a formal tone whether making a professional or personal apology.Email1. With time being as critical to everyone as it is, sending an Apology Letter via email, once considered a faux pas, is now becoming increasingly more accepted. a. Send your letter in the same format as you would for snail mail – this conveys to the reader that you took the time to create a professional correspondence. b. Depending on the circumstances, send the message from the appropriate email account: personal email account for a personal correspondence, professional email account for professional correspondence.Printing1. Before printing, decide on what paper to use. For Apology Letters, it is best to use high-grade card stock. 2. Print your letter and envelope on the same printer using the same font and an envelope that matches the stationery.Signature1. Make three carriage returns betwee
Peak production is also evident by the fact that production is either declining or on the precipice of decline in every country except Canada, Venezuela, and the Middle East (where the majority of reserves remain). Soon the Middle East (Canada and Venezuela's increases are minimal on an annual basis) will have to increase production dramatically on an annual basis to meet world demand. At a certain point this will not be possible and global peak production will be reached.
U.S. Government economic planners currently project global peak production to be around 2015. This seems way too optimistic to me. The current excess worldwide production capacity is estimated to be only 1.5 million barrels per day. In fact, only one country, Saudi Arabia, claims any excess production capacity. With future demand requiring at least 3.4 millions barrels per day of new production each year, this leaves new projects to meet demand.
Most researchers agree that peak oil is imminent. Here is a list of forecasts:
2005 ---------- Ken Deffeyes (Oil Geologist/Author "Beyond Oil")
2006 ---------- T. Boone Pickens (Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- A. M. S. Bakhitari (Iranian Oil Executive)
2006-2007 ----- Matthew Simmons (Banker/Author "Twilight in the Desert")
2007 ---------- Colin Campbell ((Oil Geologist/Author "The Coming Oil Crisis")
2007 ---------- Anonymous Pemex Oil Geologist (Oilcast #28)
2008 ---------- C. Skrebowski (Petroleum Economist)
Before 2010 --- David Goodstein (Cal Tech Professor/Author "Out of Gas")
After 2010 ---- World Energy Council
2016 ---------- EIA (US Government Energy Information Administration)
After 2020 ---- CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)
In Saudi Arabia, which claims to hold a quarter of all global reserves (conventional oil), six giant fields produce 90 percent of their oil. All of these giants are old and likely past their peak production. In 1982, OPEC countries stopped releasing production and reserve numbers on a field by field basis. In effect, they became secretive and have remained secretive. For this reason, we can only estimate (guess) when each field will reach peak. What we do know is that they have had ongoing technical problems with each of their maturing giants. They have depended on water injection for decades and are now experiencing recurring high water cuts. In essence, they are pumping too much water out of the ground instead of oil.
From what I read in “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, the Saudis are struggling just to maintain production, let alone have the ability to increase it. According to Simmon’s analysis, he thinks it is likely that one of their giants is on the precipice of decline. If they lose one giant, they will likely go into production decline as a country. Whereas, U.S. Government planners are expecting Saudi Arabia to increase their production to meet worldwide demand, even the Saudis have claimed that the best they can do by 2009, is 12.5 million barrels per day.
Production Decreases:
Currently 116 large fields produce nearly 50 percent of production. Most of these fields are old and in depletion. The fields below show the common theme of production declines at the world’s giant fields. (numbers are production in barrels per day)
Oseberg (Norway) -------- 1994 (800 thousand) ---------- 2002 (200 thousand)
Brent (North Sea) -------- 1984 (450 thousand) ----------
Contrary to the opinion of the misinformed, network marketing is a business, and therefore should be conducted like a business.One of the easiest things you can do to help build your business is to conduct yourself as a professional. After all, a professional is someone who gets paid to conduct his or her profession. As a professional you follow a code of ethics set down by business law, societal mores, and the rules of your sponsoring company. Beyond that, you must look within yourself for guidance.Ask yourself what kind of people you like to do business with. Would you buy meat from a dirty butcher shop? Would you consult a physician who blows cigarette smoke in your face and has grease under his fingernails? Network marketing is the same. Prospects will not respect or join an organization that does not present itself well. Do your best to follow these guidelines, and of course, raise the standards to meet your own expectations:1. Dress for successWear the clothing appropriate to your product or service and your prospect pool. Whatever level of formality, the one rule that cannot be broken is this: you must always be neat and clean.2. Keep your samples snappyNobody wants to buy a product that appears used, grimy, or damaged. To sell a product, have fresh samples on hand at all times. Also, remember that when recruiting prospects, they must first be sold on the value and marketability of your product or service.3. Carry great literatureProspects love to look at literature. Some salespeople believe giving literature allows the prospect to safely back out of buying your product, but this is not always true. When you first approach a prospect they know nothing about your organization or its product. The carefully considered presentation of your company and product, via literature, can help assuage any fears they may have concerning your legitimacy. Keep your literature handy, give it out freely, and make sure it’s not worn and tattered.4. Your hot wheelsOne of the final, although most troublesome, areas for your image is the car you drive. Unfortunately, we cannot all drive imported cars with letters and numbers after the model name. However, what we can do is keep the car we own clean and in good running order. This is another reason not to be deceptive in your income claims when discussing the opportunity with prospects. Anyone can see what kind of car you drive, but if you’ll keep it clean and be honest with people, your car will become a “non-issue.”
After 2010 ---- World Energy Council
2016 ---------- EIA (US Government Energy Information Administration)
After 2020 ---- CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates)
In Saudi Arabia, which claims to hold a quarter of all global reserves (conventional oil), six giant fields produce 90 percent of their oil. All of these giants are old and likely past their peak production. In 1982, OPEC countries stopped releasing production and reserve numbers on a field by field basis. In effect, they became secretive and have remained secretive. For this reason, we can only estimate (guess) when each field will reach peak. What we do know is that they have had ongoing technical problems with each of their maturing giants. They have depended on water injection for decades and are now experiencing recurring high water cuts. In essence, they are pumping too much water out of the ground instead of oil.
From what I read in “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons, the Saudis are struggling just to maintain production, let alone have the ability to increase it. According to Simmon’s analysis, he thinks it is likely that one of their giants is on the precipice of decline. If they lose one giant, they will likely go into production decline as a country. Whereas, U.S. Government planners are expecting Saudi Arabia to increase their production to meet worldwide demand, even the Saudis have claimed that the best they can do by 2009, is 12.5 million barrels per day.
Production Decreases:
Currently 116 large fields produce nearly 50 percent of production. Most of these fields are old and in depletion. The fields below show the common theme of production declines at the world’s giant fields. (numbers are production in barrels per day)
Oseberg (Norway) -------- 1994 (800 thousand) ---------- 2002 (200 thousand)
Brent (North Sea) -------- 1984 (450 thousand) ---------- 2001 (80 thousand)
Prudhoe (Alaska) -------- 1981 (1.6 million) ---------- 2000 (500 thousand)
Romashkino (Russia) -------- 1970 (1.6 million) ---------- 1998 (250 thousand)
Forties (North Sea) -------- 1977 (500 thousand) ---------- 2000 (50 thousand)
Samotlor (Russia) -------- 1978 (3 million) ---------- 2001 (300 thousand)
Daqing (China) -------- 2000 (1 million) ---------- 2006 (600 thousand)
Canterell (Mexico) -------- 2003 (2 million) ---------- 2009 (600 thousand)
Norway (All Production) -------- 2000 (3.1 million) ---------- 2005 (2.5 million)
U.K. (All Production) -------- 2000 (2.9 million) ---------- 2005 (1.7 million)
USA (All Production) -------- 2005 (5 million) ---------- 2010 (3.5 million)
When you look these numbers you can understand why the annual production decline is at least 2%. Once we get to 2010, the annual decline will be even higher. The reason for this is because we stopped finding giant fields after the 1970s. Most of the large producing fields today are old and mature and declining.
Estimated Production Increases (Next 3 years):
Currently there are only a limited number of new projects around the world scheduled to begin production in 2006-2008. If these projects cannot reach 11 million barrels per day, then will have likely reached peak oil and demand will not be met.
Location ------------------ Potential New Production in barrels per day
Deep Water --------------- 2-4 million. (Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, Angola and Nigeria)
Saudi Arabia --------------- 1-2 million.
Azerbaijan --------------- 400-800 thousand.
Canada --------------- 250-300 thousand.
Kazakhstan --------------- 200-500 thousand.
Iran --------------- 200-400 thousand.
Libya --------------- 100-500 thousand.
Russia --------------- 100-500 thousand.
Abu Dhabi --------------- 100-300 thousand.
Iraq --------------- 100-300 thousand.
Venezuela --------------- 100-200 thousand.
Australia --------------- 50-150 thousand.
Indonesia --------------- 50-150 thousand.
Congo --------------- 50-100 thousand.
Vietnam --------------- 50-100 thousand.
When you compare these new projects (5 to 10 million barrels of potential production) in tandem with global demand and production decreases over the next three years (11 million barrels), we are headed for peak oil production. I think production could reach 87 million barrels per day, but 90 million is unlikely. Every project would have to go perfectly, or else Saudi Arabia would have to make up the difference.
It is difficult to find information about projected production for future projects. One source I found, Jeff Rubin, the Chief Economist at CIBC Word Markets, predicts new oil production to be 3.5 million barrels per day in 2006, 3 in 2007, and 3 in 2008. If you add these up, he is expecting 9.5 million barrels of increased production over the next three years. If his numbers are right, the key for reaching peak oil before 2009 will be the net depletion rate. If this rate stays close to 2% then peak oil will not occur until after 2008.
Another source I found was Oilcast #28 on OilCast.com. This audio file includes an interview with a PEMEX engineer. He has a few insightful comments. 1) Peak oil will be somewhere between 85 and 90 million barrels per day. 2) The Saudi's are already producing at maximum capacity. 3) It is unlikely the Saudi's will produce much more than what they are currently producing.
If new projects do not meet demand, that leaves Saudi Arabia to fill the void. The producer of last resort. They claim that they will be able to increase production 2 million barrels per day over the next three years. I have my doubts.
In 1978 (the last year Aramco was ran by International Oil companies such as BP), Aramco publicly released reserves on a field by field basis that totaled 110 billion barrels in proven reserves. In 1979, Aramco changed from foreign stewardship to Saudi Aramco (The Saudi Royal Family). In 1982, after the formation of OPEC, the Saudis increased their reserves to 150 billion barrels, although they had not discovered any new fields. Today, they claim 260 billion barrels in proven reserves, yet have never provided any documentation to substantiate their claims.
What we do know about Saudi reserves is that no oil has been found in any significant quantities since 1978 (90% of their production is coming from old fields). In addition, we know that they have produced more than 75 billion barrels since 1978. So, if we are to believe their numbers, Aramco should have stated their reserves at 335 billion barrels (260 + 75) in 1978! This number is so inflated as to be ridiculous. The correct number is closer to 125.
When you put this smaller reserve number in perspective, you realize that Saudi Arabia is not the producer of last resort. In fact, it's possible that they have already passed peak production, which for them was 10.5 million barrels per day in 1980.
All OPEC countries have lied about their reserves in order to have larger quotas. It is considered normal business practices for OPEC members. Proof of this transgression was recently found in Kuwait. Petroleum Intelligence Weekly recently reported that Kuwait has 48 billion barrels of reserves, and not the 99 billion that they have claimed publicly. I would bet this is the same for all OPEC countries. This begs the question, how far off are the OPEC claimed?
Some people point to the huge unconventional reserves in Canadian Tar Sands as a producer or last resort for the global market. Current Tar Sand production in Canada is about 800 thousand barrels day and is increasing about 10 percent per year. They expect to produce about 2.5 million barrels a day by 2015.
There is a large quantity of Tar Sands in Canada. Current proven reserves are estimated to be 350 billion barrels. Potential reserves are projected to be as much as 2 trillion barrels. The problem is that it takes a long time to increase production of unconventional oil. Also, as more oil production comes online after 2015, production declines elsewhere will be intensifying. Even if Canadian Tar Sands production increases to 5 million barrels per day by 2025, this won't have much impact on global supplies.
Another producer with large potential production is Venezuela. They have potentially 1 trillion barrels of reserves in extra heavy unconventional oil. Their heavy oil production should increase dramatically. As oil prices increase, there is going to be a lot of investment in Venezuela. We should see 1-2 million barrels per day of heavy oil production sometime in the next decade. Like the Canadian Tar Sands, it will be a slow process to expand production.
Peak oil could be delayed until 2010, with small increases in 2008 and 2009. If this happens then we could see something like the following:
2007: 87 million barrels per day
2008: 88 million barrels per day
2009: 89 million barrels per day
However, demand will not be met in 2008 and 2009 and prices will be high, somewhere between $80 and $100. This is the best case scenario, with peak oil reaching around 90 million barrels per day in 2009 or 2010. On a positive note, if we don’t have war in the Middle East, oil production could remain in the 80-88 million barrels a day range until around 2015, when there will begin a large drop off in production.
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