to the QSR game and real money in the pockets of real American’s five and ten dollars at a time. We are talking the reality of spendable income in the US. Where are we right now? Well do you want your local Economic Development Association BS, or do you want the straight goods? In the San Antonio Business Journal, which is generally a good cross section of America, although with the high Hispanic labor market there it does have much higher productivity and better cost structures as far If we look at trucking in August 2000 we see it was up even as diesel prices were rising, nice steady 3-4% quarterly gains, before the drop out. There were lots of mergers in trucking, which continued all through the 2001 and into this 2002 year. Rail was a roller coaster between 1998 and 1999 with 2000 showing great confidence in the mergers of the few years past. Air freight was up to. And there was plenty of water although the 2001 forecast back then was dismal and they were right bringing us to today’s efforts.

Then came 9-11 in 2001 Air Freight, Shipping by rail and most major US Ports had dropped by 23% on average taking several months to recover. Freight forwarding was up and wholesale where housing was just slightly up due to B2B streamlining and Michael Dell’s successes to promote real time and just in time shipping, all this helping UPS as they went public and of course the relentless Fed Ex as they expanded to ground and home delivery through acquisitions and independent contractor will power led by a really smart crazy man who never quits. Everything was up but it did not appear to be as money flowed faster promoting the concept of larger supply with zero visible inflation, it was there, but economies of scale and streamlining of inventories were able to keep the consumer with better pricing during market share grabs of power plays by consolidating companies and the high pitched stock market which was getting slammed due to the robust bullshit of the VC, who are still at it today with Bio Tech playing games, not on our computers with the Dot Coms of the past but with the longevity of loved ones, with BS cancer drugs.

Does this seem all cyclical to you? Yes me too. I see things happening now and the stock market is making everyone weird and many are going into real estate and about the time every one switches the great gambling casino of the 21 st century will run again after burning all the fishes in their 401Ks. Back to the QSR game and real money in the pockets of real American’s five and ten dollars at a time. We are talking the reality of spendable income in the US. Where are we right now? Well do you want your local Economic Development Association BS, or do you want the straight goods? In the San Antonio Business Journal, which is generally a good cross section of America, although with the high Hispanic labor market there it does have much higher productivity and better cost structures as far a

nging us to today’s efforts.

Then came 9-11 in 2001 Air Freight, Shipping by rail and most major US Ports had dropped by 23% on average taking several months to recover. Freight forwarding was up and wholesale where housing was just slightly up due to B2B streamlining and Michael Dell’s successes to promote real time and just in time shipping, all this helping UPS as they went public and of course the relentless Fed Ex as they expanded to ground and home delivery through acquisitions and independent contractor will power led by a really smart crazy man who never quits. Everything was up but it did not appear to be as money flowed faster promoting the concept of larger supply with zero visible inflation, it was there, but economies of scale and streamlining of inventories were able to keep the consumer with better pricing during market share grabs of power plays by consolidating companies and the high pitched stock market which was getting slammed due to the robust bullshit of the VC, who are still at it today with Bio Tech playing games, not on our computers with the Dot Coms of the past but with the longevity of loved ones, with BS cancer drugs.

Does this seem all cyclical to you? Yes me too. I see things happening now and the stock market is making everyone weird and many are going into real estate and about the time every one switches the great gambling casino of the 21 st century will run again after burning all the fishes in their 401Ks. Back to the QSR game and real money in the pockets of real American’s five and ten dollars at a time. We are talking the reality of spendable income in the US. Where are we right now? Well do you want your local Economic Development Association BS, or do you want the straight goods? In the San Antonio Business Journal, which is generally a good cross section of America, although with the high Hispanic labor market there it does have much higher productivity and better cost structures as far

and independent contractor will power led by a really smart crazy man who never quits. Everything was up but it did not appear to be as money flowed faster promoting the concept of larger supply with zero visible inflation, it was there, but economies of scale and streamlining of inventories were able to keep the consumer with better pricing during market share grabs of power plays by consolidating companies and the high pitched stock market which was getting slammed due to the robust bullshit of the VC, who are still at it today with Bio Tech playing games, not on our computers with the Dot Coms of the past but with the longevity of loved ones, with BS cancer drugs.

Does this seem all cyclical to you? Yes me too. I see things happening now and the stock market is making everyone weird and many are going into real estate and about the time every one switches the great gambling casino of the 21 st century will run again after burning all the fishes in their 401Ks. Back to the QSR game and real money in the pockets of real American’s five and ten dollars at a time. We are talking the reality of spendable income in the US. Where are we right now? Well do you want your local Economic Development Association BS, or do you want the straight goods? In the San Antonio Business Journal, which is generally a good cross section of America, although with the high Hispanic labor market there it does have much higher productivity and better cost structures as far

hit of the VC, who are still at it today with Bio Tech playing games, not on our computers with the Dot Coms of the past but with the longevity of loved ones, with BS cancer drugs.

Does this seem all cyclical to you? Yes me too. I see things happening now and the stock market is making everyone weird and many are going into real estate and about the time every one switches the great gambling casino of the 21 st century will run again after burning all the fishes in their 401Ks. Back to the QSR game and real money in the pockets of real American’s five and ten dollars at a time. We are talking the reality of spendable income in the US. Where are we right now? Well do you want your local Economic Development Association BS, or do you want the straight goods? In the San Antonio Business Journal, which is generally a good cross section of America, although with the high Hispanic labor market there it does have much higher productivity and better cost structures as far

to the QSR game and real money in the pockets of real American’s five and ten dollars at a time. We are talking the reality of spendable income in the US. Where are we right now? Well do you want your local Economic Development Association BS, or do you want the straight goods? In the San Antonio Business Journal, which is generally a good cross section of America, although with the high Hispanic labor market there it does have much higher productivity and better cost structures as far as housing, cars, food and health care. It was reported in a Survey and remember this survey shit can be as good as Perot’s famous flip chart system or it can be good for perception evaluation, which typically becomes reality anyway. 55% of restaurant owners said they thought things were better than in 2001, 40% said same as 2001. The rest said it was worse off. Similarly in the car wash industry the same figures too.

Things could change in San Antonio if BRAC does a closing there or if water runs any lower or if Hospitality takes another hit from the International terrorists. But I do not see any of this effecting any thing there this year, so the weather vain of San Antonio is a good indication that small business owners, and franchised QSRs (find a list at http://www.francising.org ) seem to all agree that the worst is over. Yes it probably is, however we will see on in th drought regions a few problems and El Nino effects sales also on the West Coast for summer QSR sales. Believe it or not Decembers are good months for fast food due to all the Christmas Shoppers out and around in the spending mood. So we could see healthy, yet unhealthy growth in that sector as President Bush has said America is way to fat. Entrepreneurial activities and those starting businesses is down by 30% over all and franchising is down since 9-11, franchise sales that is by 45%, but franchisees in business are stating similar to pre-9-11 number today across the board in nearly every industry except travel.

It is smart to look at old data when anticipating business cycle changes; it helps you understand how everything inter relates to the economic forces at hand. Think on this for me.